>What do you make of Hoffman's forecast?
I think he is basically correct. What he describes is effectively Corporate America adapting to job stacking, other forms of labor market arbitrage, and the general asymmetries of remote work in the same way the entertainment industry adapted to piracy.
I remember I used to pirate video games and movies all the time. I basically stopped after high quality streaming and digital distribution took over the market. It just wasn't worth it to pirate and have to deal with cracking and updating patches etc. when they made it super convenient and safe to get what you wanted. Same thing will happen to job stacking once super talented programmers can make 500k a year picking up big contracts in an ultra decentralized and unstructured marketplace.
But this will require some other changes too--Consulting industry needs to be emasculated and credentialism in general has to be rolled back. But I predict this will happen across all industries over the next few decades, some faster than others. In general it will be great for people like me so I am excited.
The catch is this world will be incredibly asymmetrical. Think about the difference is between a 99th percentile Millennial and a 50th percentile Millennial--it's much larger than it was for Gen X. Well for Zoomers the gap is even bigger, and by the time Gen Alpha is 30yo you'll probably have the top 1% using AI to hyper-optimize everything while the average guy literally can't put their ipad down for 30 seconds.
This will impact society in all kinds of weird ways (incel rate, polygyny, etc.). But in the job market specifically we are prob going to have a much higher ceiling for the average 90th percentile guy and a much lower floor for the 60th percentile. AI is going to start clearing out entire departments and nobody will be guaranteed a cushy six figure sinecure for putting in their time in Corporate America anymore.
Thankfully current job stackers will be at a huge advantage competing in this new market. I aim to ensure that Tortuga Society guys will be on the cutting edge.
> What types of employment structures could make job-stacking unnecessary?
Basically you need to make it viable for any extremely talented 24yo guy to start his own consultancy. That is what would adequately replace it.
As it stands this *kind of* works in tech but you def couldn't pull this off in financial services or any other hyper-credentialized and conservative field. Too many of the brass worship McKinsey and Deloitte and KPMG in these industries and you basically need to be an old man who steals clients from your old employer to compete.
> Would you want that or do you like being a pirate?
My current leadership role in Tortuga is almost perfect for me because it combines my two skillsets:
1) Marketing / Branding / Organization / Strategy from my time as a consultant manager at Deloitte
2) Making edgy propaganda, from my Alt Right days
So personally I would stay a pirate insofar as I think my current role allows me to provide the most value to the world as I can and be as useful as humanly possible.
But if I had to choose between stacking three data analyst roles and running a consultancy obviously the latter any day of the week. But only if I'm not fighting a bunch of credentialism, McKinsey worship, regulatory capture etc.
>How would you approach these issues and these as an employer?
Technically I am right now in running this quasi-startup--my officers Theon and Sesped each have two remote jobs in addition to working for me and Blackbeard has one other and headed for more. It hasn't been an issue so far.
But I know that's kind of a BS answer, so if I were running a normie consultancy I'd probably try to pivot my firm to paying for results-based contract work ASAP. I would game around the expectation that my employees will do the best thing for themselves.
Honestly I wouldn't want the employee who would rather make $150k than $450k just because he likes me or whatever. He is going to be weak and unagentic and will probably let the firm down in a vital moment. I want sharks who can eat what they kill.
Also I believe in incentive alignment and think salaries are just horrible for that in general tbh. It should be project based and aligned entirely with results or amount to equity in some revenue-generating process (how I am currently remunerating my officers in lieu of equity).
Fun questions, thanks for asking!
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